How Long Will My Retirement Last? A Guide to Calculating Portfolio Longevity
The question every pre-retiree eventually asks isn't "how much have I saved?" — it's "will it be enough?" How long your retirement lasts depends on far more than a savings number. It requires understanding your spending, withdrawal strategy, market conditions, and the reality that you may live longer than you expect.
This guide walks you through how to calculate portfolio longevity, what variables drive the answer, and how to stress-test your plan against real-world uncertainty.
How Long Does Retirement Actually Last?
Before calculating how long your money needs to last, you need an honest estimate of your retirement horizon.
The average U.S. retirement age is 62. From there, women aged 65 are expected to live to approximately 87; men to approximately 84, per the Social Security Administration. Those are averages — and averages obscure the planning challenge. The average American wants to live to 91, according to Pew Research, while U.S. life expectancy at birth recently hit 79 — a 12-year gap between the number people hear and the life they're hoping for.
The practical implication: the planning floor for a retirement starting at 65 isn't 78 — it's 85. That's 20 years before accounting for the fact that most people are hoping for 26.
If you retire at 62 and plan for 30 years, you're targeting age 92. Your savings need to fund that entire window.
How Much Do You Need in Retirement Savings?
There's no single answer, but widely used benchmarks can orient your planning.
Fidelity suggests saving 10x your annual pre-retirement income by age 67, based on contributing 15% of income annually starting at 25. Age milestones: 1x salary by 30, 3x by 40, 6x by 50, 8x by 60.
Most Americans fall short. The Federal Reserve reports average retirement savings of $609,230 for the 65–74 age bracket — but the median is roughly $200,000. A small number of high-balance savers pull the average up sharply.
On spending, BLS data show average annual household expenditures for those 65 and older. Your number may differ based on housing, healthcare, debt, and lifestyle.